Three Most Overhyped Cleveland Browns In 2023

Some people might get upset with this article but it comes from the linebacker roundtable we did as the OBR team when I labeled a player the most overrated player on the entire roster. Jake looked at that comment and said you need to lay this out in a full article as you can't just leave it there, so here we are!

The idea of this article is to look at the difference between how a player is perceived between fans/media compared to their on-field production. Someone can still be a very important contributor despite appearing on this list, you can look back to 'fan favorites' like Jarvis Landry in the past who was treated like one of the best wide receivers in the league but then once out of Cleveland, he was down to earning $3m a year when the league judged him.

The other direction this can be is expectation management, if you are looking for a player to join the team and turn an entire position room around, is that realistic or are we expecting too much?

So let's dive into it and let me know who your top three are in the comments.

Narrative - He is going to come in and transform the defensive tackle room, fixing the issues they have had in the past, being historically one of the worst units ever in 2022

Reality - If we are looking back over the last three years Tomlinson has 53.5% of snaps. Missing one game in 2021 and four games in 2022. That instantly shows a problem with him fixing the defensive tackle room because he is only going to be on the field for about half of the snaps and is why it takes at least two defensive tackles to fix a room so you can have an above-average talent out there at all time with them rotating.

You compare those snap percentages to Myles Garrett on the edge, last season he played 75.0% of snaps, this just shows why an edge can be so much more impactful. Generally, they aren't quite as big and have a motor that can go for the majority of the game rather than half of it.

Tomlinson has been great and is up there with some of the best defensive tackles in the league but expecting him to solve the position room when he is only playing half the amount of snaps means he isn't going to single-handedly solve the issue. We need all four of the defensive tackles on the roster to play well as they will all be getting meaningful game time as you can't hide them on a depth chart as you might with other positions.

Narrative - He is an electric weapon and will be a 1,000-yard receiver

Reality - All the noise is that he has had a great training camp so far and building good chemistry with Watson at quarterback but 1,000-yard season is a big stretch.

In his rookie season, he got 538 yards and followed that up with 446 in 2022. That means in two years total he hasn't made it to 1,000 yards so expecting him to get that in his third season would be a massive step forward.

Cooper has managed to get four 1,000-yard seasons in his last five seasons so there is a good chance for him to repeat this in 2023.

Here is a look of how many wide receivers had 1,000-yard seasons per year:

2022 - 21

2021 - 23

2020 - 16

So the chances of two receivers getting 1,000+ is very unlikely. I think a more realistic measure would be to say two wide receivers in the top 50 because that is one player for every position and then the next one being in the top half, so here is the 50th most receiving yards for wide receivers the last three years:

2022 - 623

2021 - 597

2020 - 690

So 600 yards seems to be a much more realistic number than 1,000 yards. Plus you have Peoples-Jones and Njoku also competing for targets as there are multiple weapons for Watson to target.

Narrative - He’s up there with the best LBs in the league and can be a game-changer for the Browns' 2023 defense

Reality - He’s okay but very hit and miss play to play plus week to week.

He played 597 snaps his rookie season and then followed that up with 535 snaps in 2022. If we look at where that ranks amongst the league it is quite low, 57th and 60th respectively. You would assume someone who is a great player would be given more opportunities.

If we look at how he has ranked per PFF among linebackers with 500+ snaps each of these years he was great his rookie year 6th out of 66. But then fell in year two to 31st out of 60.

The first two weeks of the 2022 season he was grading amazingly well, just behind Anthony Walker but once he went off injured he fell off a cliff, only having two games over a 64.3 and the majority of his games grading under a 50.0 which is a replacement level player. If you want to be the main linebacker in a defense you have to perform regardless of who is next to you and not need Anthony Walker etc to elevate your game.

He has been singled out by coaches in interviews this season with how he needs to develop and get better if he wants to remain on the field. The third year is usually always the most important in a player's career as it is setting themselves up for the first time a team can pay them.

Over a four-year window, the Front Office has spent $7.8m on average across their entire linebacker room. If he is wanting a long-term deal in Cleveland they will have to dramatically shift from this model which also served Schwartz well in Philadelphia of being cheap on linebackers so they can spend more on the defensive line.

JOK's time in Cleveland is likely halfway to the end and he will need to dramatically improve and show he can elevate those around him if he wants to get a payday in the city. So far his play hasn't reached the levels it requires so free agency is calling unless something changes.